Planning Assumption Source of Challenge Optimal Business Model / Objective (under globalization era policies) Hedging Focus Implementation Vehicles Successful Outcome (if adverse outcome occurs) Successful Aggregate-Level Impact
Ordinary Risk Management (future replicates past) Known - e.g., economic downturn, theft Comparative Advantage / Profit Maximization Insurance/Financial Insurance Policies/Financial Derivatives Repayment of lost income or assets for individual organization Marginal - other individual firms can meet community demand
Risk Management* and black swan consequences Unknown - system wide disruption (anticipates consequence) Comparative Advantage Hybrid / Profit Maximization & Survival Real Options Flexible choices to expand, abandon, switch - e.g., regional webs of supply chain nodes Individual members of global supply chains keep operating Large - May result in global system survival